Sub-Saharan Africa has opened the New Year with woes and weals. From Ghana to South Africa and from Senegal to Uganda, most African
countries greet the New Year in peace and serenity and are working in
concert toward common prosperity.
On the other side, however,
countries like Somalia, Central Africa, South Sudan and the Democratic
Republic of Congo are still rife with uncertainties and complexity,
fueling worries about their security and stability.
The
complicated circumstances ahead could be a prelude to the security
situation on the continent throughout 2014: most of the countries would
press ahead in a peaceful way, a minority would be trapped in prolonged
instability and only a few would face massive bloodshed.
For sub-Saharan, three major barriers are staring it right in the face.
First,
terrorism may turn into ingrained cancer of the region. Since
turbulence flared up in 2011 in West Asia and North Africa, terrorist
forces have accelerated penetration southward. Mali's AQMI and Nigeria's
Boko Haram, which still pose risks to WANA, have increasingly built
connections with anti-government forces such as al-Shabaab in East
Africa.
In September 2013, an upscale Westgate shopping mall in
Kenya's capital Nairobi was attacked by terrorists, leaving 67 dead and
hundreds injured. The Royal United Services Institute cautioned that an
"arc of instability" is stretching across West, North and East Africa.
And by the time various terrorist forces unite in evil, not only peace and stability of Africa will have been threatened.
Second, the long-term unrest in several sub-Saharan countries has brought about growing spillovers.
The
outbreak of refugee flows resulting from social turmoil in South Sudan
and Central Africa has imposed huge pressure on their neighboring
nations.
According to the UN statistics, up to 190,000 people
have been displaced since deadly clashes erupted between warring parties
in South Sudan in mid-December; since March last year, deteriorating
situation in Central African Republic has forced 75,000 refugees to flee
to neighboring countries like Republic of Congo, which brought a lot of
pressure on border management and security.
In addition, some
places in Central Africa are likely to became new drug transshipment
points for the "Golden Crescent" countries such as Afghanistan.
According
to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, seizures of heroin since 2009 are
up tenfold in East Africa. The African Union officials also warned there
is accumulative evidence of collusion between drug crimes and
terrorism.
Third, there are growing chances of economic
volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. For many countries in the region, to
construct financial firewalls and speed up economic restructuring has
been put high on the agenda.
In recent years, the sub-Saharan
economies have picked up steam as their growing ranks of middle class
acted like pivotal "ballast" for peace and stability in the region.
Yet
there is lack of significant improvement on the undiversified economies
and heavy reliance on foreign investment and resources export.
According
to African media forecasts, the US Federal Reserve's tapering will
possibly result in a shift of international capital from inflows into to
outflows from sub-Saharan Africa in 2014.
And new changes in
supply and demand of oil and gas, combined with easing situations in the
Middle East, will lead to a drop in oil and gas prices, media outlets
estimated.
All of these factors may get Africa's "star economies"
like South Africa and Angola in trouble, as they are facing currency
depreciation and decreasing values of foreign exchange reserves.
Despite
the challenges, there is good reason to build up confidence in
safeguarding peace in sub-Saharan Africa. Sound development momentum has
been gathered and maintained on the whole, after this region overcame
all kinds of hardships in the past few years.
"The Renaissance of
Africa" is coming to reality step by step and the African people's
resolve and wisdom should never be overlooked or underrated. With that
in mind, the world is ready to see a united and promising Africa in the
new year.
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