After three days of talks in Geneva, U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
demanded Assad account for his secret stockpile within a week and let
international inspectors eliminate all the weapons by the middle of next
year - an "ambitious" target, Kerry said.
The
accord leaves major questions unanswered, including how feasible such a
major disarmament can be in the midst of civil war and at what point
Washington might yet make good on a continued threat to attack if it
thinks Assad is reneging.
Under the
Geneva pact, the United States and Russia will back a United Nations
enforcement mechanism. But its terms are not yet set. Russia is unlikely
to support the military option that President Barack Obama said he was
still ready to use.
"If diplomacy
fails, the United States remains prepared to act," Obama said. "The
international community expects the Assad regime to live up to its
public commitments."
But for
Assad's opponents, who two weeks ago thought U.S. air strikes were
imminent in response to a gas attack on rebel territory, the deal was a
blow to hopes of swinging the war their way. Kerry and Lavrov said it
could herald broader peace talks, as warplanes hit rebel positions again
near Damascus.
The accord,
however, was as much about U.S.-Russian ties as it was about Syria. The
conflict has chilled relations to levels recalling the Cold War.
In
reaching a bilateral deal after what one U.S. official described as
three days of "hard fought" debate, Moscow and Washington can each count
benefits.
For Russian President
Vladimir Putin, it brings management of the Syrian crisis back to the
United Nations. For Obama, it solves the dilemma created by Congress's
reluctance to back military strikes that he was preparing without a U.N.
mandate.
Lavrov told a joint news
conference in Geneva: "It shows that when there is a will ... Russia and
the United States can get results on the most important problems."
"The
successful realization of this agreement will have meaning not only
from the point of view of the common goal of eliminating all arsenals of
chemical weapons, but also to avoid the military scenario that would be
catastrophic for this region and international relations on the whole."
Kerry
acknowledged, however, that further success was far from guaranteed:
"The implementation of this framework, which will require the vigilance
and the investment of the international community, and full
accountability of the Assad regime, presents a hard road ahead," he
said.
Despite a measure of
camaraderie on display in banter between the two men during the
presentation of the two-page framework agreement, they remained openly
at odds over the U.S. willingness to use force in Syria without U.N.
backing.
REBELS DISMISSIVE
In
Istanbul, the head of the Syrian rebel Supreme Military Council,
General Selim Idris, called it a blow to opposition hopes of
overthrowing Assad and accused the Syrian president of circumventing any
disarmament by already sending chemical weapons to allies in Lebanon
and Iraq in recent days.
Qassim
Saadeddine, a rebel commander in northern Syria, told Reuters: "Let the
Kerry-Lavrov plan go to hell. We reject it and we will not protect the
inspectors."
Idris, however, said
his forces would help the inspectors. A U.S. official said Washington
believed all Syria's chemical weapons remained in areas under government
control.
Assad, backed by Iran,
crushed demonstrations demanding democracy in 2011 and, while losing
territory, has withstood a full-blown uprising supported by Arab states
and the West.
Prodded by Russia, he
has now agreed to abide by a global chemical weapons ban and submit to
controls by the U.N.-backed Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons (OPCW).
That will deprive
him of arms which he denies having used and spares him, at least for
now, what were likely to be heavy U.S. and French missile strikes and
bombing raids.
Assad's opponents
criticize the United States and its allies for the focus on chemical
weapons, which account for a very small number of the more than 100,000
dead in the war, and of abandoning them to face a deadly, Russian-armed
enemy.
On Saturday, as government
jets struck rebel-held suburbs of the capital and troops fought rebels
on the ground, one opposition activist in Damascus voiced anger and
resignation:
"The most important
point is the act of killing, no matter what is the weapon," said Tariq
al-Dimashqi. "The killing will continue. No change will happen. That is
it."
Syrian state media broadcast the Geneva news conference live, indicating that Damascus is satisfied with the deal.
DEAL OFFERS WAY OUT
Having
taken the surprise decision two weeks ago to seek congressional
approval for strikes to punish Assad for using poison gas, Obama faced a
dilemma when lawmakers appeared likely to deny him.
They
cited unease about helping Islamist militants among the rebels and a
wariness of new entanglements in the Middle East after wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
The weapons deal
proposed by Putin, a former KGB agent intent on restoring some of the
influence Moscow lost with the Soviet collapse two decades ago, offered
Obama a way out.
Russia has
protected and armed Assad and has been alarmed at what it sees as
Western willingness to bypass the United Nations to impose "regime
change" in other states.
Under the
terms of the U.S.-Russian agreement, the U.N. Security Council - on
which Russia has a veto - will oversee the process. Syria must let the
OPCW complete an initial inspection of its chemical weapons sites by
November.
Kerry said Assad must
produce a "comprehensive listing" of its chemical weapons within a week.
The goal is to complete destruction of Syria's arsenal in the first
half of 2014.
The agreement states
that a Security Council resolution should allow for regular assessments
of Syria's behavior and "in the event of non-compliance ... the UN
Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN
Charter".
Chapter VII can include
force but can be limited to other kinds of sanction. When Kerry said the
Council "must" impose measures under Chapter VII, Lavrov interrupted to
point out that the agreed text says only it "should" impose penalties.
"There's
no diminution of options," Kerry said, noting Obama's right under U.S.
law to order military action, with or without support from Congress or
any international body.
The
Pentagon said it had made no change to the forces it had lined up. A
spokesman said: "The credible threat of military force has been key to
driving diplomatic progress."
Lavrov said of the agreement: "There is nothing said about the use of force and not about any automatic sanctions."
Putin
has supported Assad's contention that the sarin gas attack on August
21, which Washington says killed over 1,400 civilians, was the work of
rebels trying to provoke Western intervention.
Lavrov said, however, that Russia would support U.N. punishment for anyone whose guilt was clearly proven.
A
new round of argument about responsibility for the August 21 deaths is
likely in the coming days, once U.N. inspectors deliver their report on
the incident to the world body.
PEACE NEGOTIATIONS?
In
two weeks, when the U.N. General Assembly convenes in New York, Lavrov
and Kerry have said they will meet the U.N. Syria envoy to see if they
can push forward a plan for an international peace conference to
negotiate an end to the war.
An
effort last year for a political solution, dubbed the "Geneva Plan" and
calling for a transitional government, went nowhere as Assad refused to
cede power and the opposition insisted he could not be a part of any new
political order.
Kerry said
Saturday's chemical weapons deal could be "the first concrete step"
toward a final settlement. Lavrov said he hoped all parties to the
conflict could attend a conference in October, without setting
pre-conditions for their attendance.
There
is little sign of softening among Syrians, however, or among rival
backers in the Middle East, where the conflict is part of a broader
regional confrontation with sectarian elements between Shi'ite Iran and
Sunni Muslim Arab leaders.
The
opposition Syrian National Coalition in Istanbul elected a moderate
Islamist, former political prisoner Ahmad Tumeh, as its provisional
prime minister on Saturday. Members said they hoped Tumeh could help
make the often fractious opposition's case in negotiations to achieve
their demands.
Senior Kerry aides
involved in the talks said that the United States and Russia agreed that
Syria has 1,000 metric tons of chemical agents, including nerve gas
sarin and mustard gas - one of the world's largest stockpiles of such
material.
But the officials said there was no agreement on how many sites must be inspected. Washington thinks it is at least 45.
One U.S. official called the task "daunting to say the least". Another noted there were "targets ... not a deadline".
The
weapons are likely to be removed through a combination of destroying
them in Syria and shipping some for destruction elsewhere, U.S.
officials said. Russia is one possible site for destruction, but no
final decisions have been made.
The Hague-based OPCW has never moved weapons across borders before, due to the risk, and never work in a war zone.
Burning
vast quantities of toxic chemicals alone is time consuming and risky.
So too is separating them from ammunition in pre-loaded weaponry.
Chemicals have to be injected in small quantities into a furnace and
burned, while filtering fumes.
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