The nuclear talks with the P5+1
-- that's France, Britain, Russia, China, the United States and Germany
-- this past week in Geneva left much to be desired for Iran in terms of
final outcomes. The joint action plan calls on Iran to take steps to
verify the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. In return, it
receives limited sanctions relief until a comprehensive solution within
the year takes shape.
But a deal is better than no deal as far as Tehran is concerned, and here is why:
The move preempts other power centers in Iran.
Although President Hassan
Rouhani rejected the idea, in the joint plan Tehran admitted de facto
that its nuclear program might be in non-compliance. The move preempts
hardline factions in Iran from attempts to advance know-how to build a
nuclear bomb.
It wants a dignified solution.
Despite frequent
proclamations to the contrary, Tehran will commit to talks until a way
out of the nuclear dilemma is found, even if a final deal takes a long
while to make. Until then, it can showcase its praiseworthy diplomatic
skills.
It wants the military option permanently off table.
If Iran needs nuclear
energy and has the capacity to produce the fuel, then an agreement that
allows it to enrich nuclear fuel is not only necessary, but also reduces
the chance of a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. That
is why it insists on enrichment.
It wants to fortify the conservative power-base.
Without a deal, that
prospect is in jeopardy because rival political factions in Iran will
undermine Rouhani's conservative camp. Already, the joint action plan
has come under attack by hardline sources who told Raja News, linked to
former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that it degrades Iran's nuclear
rights.
It wants to re-define "Death to America."
Tehran can't control
those chants. They aim to sabotage talks but also bring tactical
pressure on the P5+1 to deliver on its end of the bargain. Tehran wants
talks to move forward regardless. That is why Interior Minister Abdul
Reza Rahmani Fazli told Mehr news agency that the chant means Iran
supports talks. While that surely confuses any American, the vast
majority of Iranians rejoice in what is implied, that Tehran is ready
for a deal with the enemy.
It wants to keep hardliners happy.
There is a national
consensus to resolve the nuclear crisis, according to hardline papers
Kayhan and Sobh-e Sadeqh. To reciprocate the favor, Tehran hasn't
rejected their calls to exercise "resistance diplomacy," a term branded
to push Tehran to remain defiant in the nuclear talks. Tehran paid
lip-service to the cause while it advanced the talks. That means it
knows it must "eat bread based on its daily currency," to be able to
"tie the devil's hand behind its back," as two Persian proverbs go.
It wants sanctions lifted.
A deal which revamps
Iran's economy and generates hard cash is a good one, even if it happens
slowly. The head of Iran's Foreign Policy and National Security
Commission Alaadin Boroujerdi told ISNA news agency the country will
stick with talks until all sanctions are lifted, which the joint plan
promises to do through a later comprehensive solution. He also told Fars
news agency that parliament will make the endorsement of decisions with
the P5+1 conditional on removing sanctions.
It wants its three-tier proposal to get a fair chance.
The action plan reflects
some of the language of the Iranian proposal which was presented and
ignored early this month in Geneva. This includes recognizing a
step-by-step process to end the nuclear dispute, and the reversibility
of an agreement if all its provisions are not fully met. This proposal
gives Tehran and other parties a chance to step back and weigh new
options if progress in talks falls short of expectations.
It wants a deal before the next U.S. presidential race.
Tehran does not want to
rush talks in order to maximize the advantages of a final deal. But it
knows the best opportunity for a good deal is until next November when
campaigning for the 2016 presidential election can knock other
priorities down the list. Although it risks tying the fate of the
nuclear talks to its relations with the U.S., Tehran is prepared to take
that chance. That is why, in an interview with Tehran-based ISNA, its
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said he was ready for the next round of
talks to begin right away.
It wants to activate its regional diplomacy.
Tehran de-linked the
nuclear talks from other regional issues including Syria, but remained
open to discussing them with the P5+1. It paid the price and ignored its
neighbors in the process, including Saudi Arabia and Israel who have
stakes in Syria, for a higher gain: to limit the impact of its conflicts
in the region on its nuclear file. With an initial plan now in place,
Tehran can revamp its regional diplomacy.
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